Behind the development planning of the hottest eme

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On July 20, at the press conference on the energy economic situation in the first half of the year, Jiang Bing, director of the planning and Development Department of the national energy administration, who met the media for the first time, brought a big news. He revealed that the "development plan for emerging energy industry" has been formulated, and it is expected that 5trillion yuan will be directly invested in nuclear energy, wind energy, photovoltaic power generation and other industries in the next 10 years

this is the third time in three years that the decision-making level has announced the investment plan for new energy, and the investment amount is higher and higher: in 2007, in the "renewable energy medium and long term development plan", the national development and Reform Commission proposed for the first time that the investment in renewable energy will reach 2trillion yuan by 20208 and the end of the experiment; Two years later, in June 2009, officials from the national energy administration revealed that China was formulating a new energy policy plan of up to 3trillion yuan; Now, this figure has risen to 5trillion yuan. This news once again stirred the enthusiasm of China's new energy industry. Many new energy concept stocks in the capital market rose by the limit, and even the discussion on how to share the 5trillion yuan cake in the rail transit field began to appear in the newspapers

but wait and cheer, it may be another empty joy. Although Jiang Bing announced that the "emerging energy industry development plan" has been formulated and is being submitted to the State Council for approval. According to the failure experience of the past year, there is still great uncertainty about whether this plan can be successfully passed

the State Council has not approved it, and the figure of 5trillion yuan cannot be finalized. Compared with the great enthusiasm of the outside world, Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, made a very calm comment on Global Entrepreneur. Also cautious is Zhou Dadi, deputy director of the national energy expert advisory committee and researcher of the Energy Institute of the national development and Reform Commission: I don't want to talk about this topic more, because everything is still unknown. According to an authoritative source of the energy administration, the new energy plan that had been claimed to be issued had not been issued, and it was put on hold after it was reported to the State Council at the beginning of this year

in fact, on this national policy related to the trend of China's new energy industry in the next 10 years, the national development and Reform Commission has changed its draft several times in the past year and postponed the time of its introduction many times: on June 1 last year, Liu Qi, deputy director of the national energy administration, said at the press conference of the state information office that the "revitalization plan for the new energy industry" has formed a relatively mature discussion draft, which is the first time that the official has formally proposed the plan; In September, zhangguobao, director of the energy administration, said that the plan was in the countersignature stage of various ministries and commissions; When the Copenhagen conference in December pushed the topic of new energy to a climax, the plan was still missing; Then came the news that it would be released after the Spring Festival. After March, the energy administration lost its voice and never mentioned the new energy plan again. Industry experts have no illusions about this when the plan is ready to come out again and again, and the media reports that once enthusiastically pursued the hot spot have also begun to show fatigue

misunderstanding and rationality

a recent incident made Qu Xiaohua, President of atlas solar, feel a little incredible. In his view, doubts about the high energy consumption and high pollution of the polysilicon industry should not be a problem for a long time, because many people in the solar energy industry, including him, have explained it many times in countless meetings and interviews

but recently, he was asked the same question again. The person asking the question was a professor of Tsinghua University. The reason was that the professor was asked about the pollution of polysilicon industry by two officials at the vice premier level when attending a meeting of the State Council, so he asked Qu Xiaohua, a Tsinghua alumnus, to teach. This made Qu Xiaohua, who originally thought that the high energy consumption and high pollution of polysilicon was just media hype, aware of the seriousness of the problem

in academia and politics, there are indeed two schools with diametrically opposite attitudes towards new energy. Li Zuojun, deputy director of the resource and Environmental Policy Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, told global entrepreneurs that when formulating the development goals of new energy, some people questioned whether it was appropriate to further develop new energy because of its overcapacity, while others insisted that new energy was still in the early stage of development and should be developed unconventionally. For example, when formulating the wind power plan, some academicians of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Sciences advocated that only 10million kW of wind power should be set (the current plan is to reach 2000 kW by 2020). Meng Xiangan, vice president of China Renewable Energy Association, revealed to Global Entrepreneur

in August last year, due to doubts about the overcapacity of new energy, the national development and Reform Commission has renamed the original "revitalization plan of new energy industry" as "development plan of emerging energy industry". Behind the positive revitalization to a more neutral development, the national development and Reform Commission has a tangled mentality about the development degree of new energy industry

in addition to the misunderstanding of pollution and excess, the reason why the new energy plan can not be issued is also due to the game with traditional fossil energy. Traditional energy has an extremely strong interest group with a stronger lobbying ability. They will not give their share to new energy. According to Mazhong, Dean of the school of environment of Renmin University of China, although the policy has obviously tilted towards new energy, it will only increase the future increment of energy rather than the current stock, and the existing share of fossil energy cannot be damaged by new energy at all

this is more profound for new energy enterprises that expect policy encouragement. The founder of a famous new energy enterprise in China believes that compared with traditional energy, new energy is always weak: there is no spokesperson in policy-making. In the past two years, the new energy industry has developed rapidly on the surface, but its strength is still vastly different from that of traditional energy groups

from a technical point of view, this new energy plan is also more than previous ones. Clean coal, smart electricity, distributed energy and new energy for vehicles have been included in the plan for the first time. An expert from the national development and Reform Commission, who asked not to be named, told the magazine that the reason for the delay in planning was that some sensitive issues had not been clarified, such as whether the new electric vehicle technology route was a petrochemical enterprise or a national power to build a charging station, which was still controversial (see the article "electric cars to the left, charging stations to the right" for details)

as for the new energy target set by the Ministry of development, reform, industry and information technology to lead the establishment of the civil aircraft aluminum upstream and downstream cooperation mechanism Committee, there are also variables whether other ministries and commissions can fully agree. The size of the target is directly related to the amount of subsidies offered by the Ministry of Finance and the ability of the Electricity Regulatory Commission to supply all these new energy power. Meng Xiangan said that these problems can not be solved in a short time

despite the difficulties, after three years of exploration, the deepening understanding of the new energy industry by the decision-making level can also be seen in the rare and frequent changes in policies: in August 2007, the national development and Reform Commission issued the "renewable energy medium and long term development plan", which mentioned that the renewable energy consumption in 2020 reached 15% of the total energy consumption. However, since September 2009, the official statement has quietly changed to: strive to achieve the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption of about 15% by 2020. Renewable energy has become non fossil energy, which has increased nuclear energy. In fact, the proportion of wind energy and solar energy has decreased instead of increasing. At the two sessions in 2010, Wen Jiabao of the State Council even incorporated new energy into the grand strategy of building a low-carbon industrial system, and energy conservation and emission reduction, the low-carbon route at the end of energy use, ranked ahead of new energy as a whole

not only is the overall goal, the government has also experienced interesting changes in the importance of various new energies in the past three years: in the medium and long term plan in 2007 and the 11th Five Year Plan for renewable energy development in 2008, biomass energy has been placed second only to hydropower, higher than wind power and solar energy. However, in this strategic development plan for emerging energy industry, the priority of development areas has changed to nuclear power, hydropower Wind, solar and biomass energy. From renewable energy to new energy to emerging energy industry, this is a smart change. Zhou Dadi told global entrepreneurs. Given that wind energy, photovoltaic energy and biomass energy are still expensive and unstable energy, the modification of the goal should be a return from innocence to rationality

although it is still difficult to predict when the new energy plan will be issued, in the face of the global escalating competition in the new energy industry, an industrial development plan that points out the development direction as soon as possible and allows new energy enterprises to put aside the risks of policy changes is still not too late. On the surface, it is understandable to start the market on a large scale after the cost of new energy is reduced to a financially acceptable level in three to five years, but if it delays the technological competition with foreign fighters, it is difficult for this industry, which is the only industry synchronized with the world, to avoid catching up with foreign countries again

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